Projections of Global Land Runoff Changes and Their Uncertainty Characteristics During the 21st Century

Quantifying uncertainty in runoff changes has profound implications for future investigations and will support global climate model improvement. We analyze the from outputs of 5th 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 CMIP6) decompose projected into three main sources: internal variability, uncertainty, scenario uncertainty. The results indicate that 73% 72% land area, respectively, shows an increase CMIP5 CMIP6 under high-emissions scenarios long term (2070–2099) relative to 1970–1999, across all increases by 10.8% RCP8.5 16.1% SSP5–8.5 during 2070–2099 1970–1999. Regions with increasing are mainly Southeast Asia, eastern Africa, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau high latitudes Northern Hemisphere. agreement is greater than low-emissions scenarios. For (RRC) CMIP6, contribution variability gradually decreases over time (from 49.2% 2.0%) while 0.6% 30.0%); this result similar CMIP5. Spatially, RRC been a major source accounting more 60% total most regions. study help us better understand also provide theoretical basis developing mitigation measures changes.